A Close Call: The Group Mostly on Target With Sales Predictions

A Close Call: The Group Mostly on Target With Sales Predictions

 An old saying goes, “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.”

Still, The Group keeps making predictions about the performance of the housing market and keeps coming close to the mark every year.

How did we do for 2023? Here’s a rundown of how our 2023 forecast matched up with the final figures:

Home sales - Based on our annual survey of Group partners, we predicted 8,970 total home sales (single-family and condominiums/ townhomes) across Northern Colorado for 2023. Actual sales totaled 8,219, translating to 91 percent accuracy. Looking ahead to 2024, we’re estimating 8,900 sales – a gain of 8 percent for the 2023 total. That would also end a run of two straight years with lower sales.

Home prices - Our partners estimated median prices of $515,000, meaning that half the sales would be priced above $515,000, and half would be priced below. With an actual median of $507,200, we achieved 98 percent accuracy. This year, we see that median price nudging up to $524,000, or an increase of 3.3 percent. 


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