Colorado Real Estate Market Update

This analysis of the Metro Denver and Northern Colorado real estate markets is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact us.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado added 45,300 non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months, a growth rate of 1.7%. Although that is a respectable number, employment growth has been trending lower in 2017 as the state reaches full employment. Within the metropolitan market areas included in this report, there was annual employment growth in all areas other than Grand Junction, where employment was modestly lower. There was solid growth in Greeley and Fort Collins, where annual job growth was measured at 4% and 2.7%, respectively.

In November, the unemployment rate in the state was a remarkably low 2.9%, down from 3% a year ago. The lowest reported unemployment rates were seen in Fort Collins and Boulder, where only 2.5% of the labor force was actively looking for work. The highest unemployment rate (3.7%) was in Grand Junction.

The state economy has been performing very well, which is why the wage growth over the past year has averaged a very solid 3.3%. I expect the labor market to remain tight and this will lead to wages rising at above-average rates through 2018.

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • In the fourth quarter of 2017, there were 14,534 home sales—a drop of 2.0% compared to a year ago.
  • Sales again rose the fastest in Boulder County, which saw sales grow 17.9% versus the third quarter of 2016. There were also reasonable increases in Weld and Larimer Counties. Sales fell in all other counties contained within this report because there is such a shortage of available homes for sale.
  • As I discussed in my third quarter report, sales slowed due to the lack of homes for sale. The average number of homes for sale in the markets in this report is down by 8.2% from the fourth quarter of 2016.
  • The takeaway is that sales growth has moderated due to the lack of homes for sale.

HOME PRICES

  • With continued competition for the limited number of available homes, prices continued their upward trend. Average prices were up 9.8% year-over-year to a regional average of $431,403, which was slightly higher than the third quarter of 2017.
  • There was slower appreciation in home values in Boulder County, but the trend is still positive.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Weld County, which saw prices rise 14.3%. There were also solid gains in almost all other counties considered in this report.
  • The ongoing imbalance between supply and demand persists, which means we can expect home prices to continue appreciating at above-average rates for the foreseeable future.

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home rose by two days when compared to the fourth quarter of 2016.
  • Homes in all but three counties contained in this report took less than a month to sell. Adams County continues to stand out, where it took an average of just 21 days for homes to sell.
  • It took an average of 29 days to sell a home last quarter. This is up nine days over the third quarter of 2017.
  • Housing demand remains strong in Colorado and this will continue with well-positioned, well-priced homes continuing to sell very quickly.

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the fourth quarter of 2017, I have chosen to leave the needle where it was in the previous quarter. Listings remain scarce, but this did not deter buyers who are still active in the market. As much as I want to see more balance between supply and demand, I believe the market will remain supply-constrained as we move toward the spring, which will continue to heavily favor sellers.

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

Posted on February 1, 2018 at 9:20 pm
Meagan Griesel | Category: Colorado Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Loveland Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Short vs. Long

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There are short-term questions about real estate and there are long term questions about real estate.

Clients often have short-term questions like…

How much will prices go up next year? Should I sell my house this Fall or next Spring? Will interest rates go up next week?

We encourage our clients to evaluate those questions in the context of the long-term. There are decades of data on the Northern Colorado market which reveal certain patterns.

When we show our clients these patterns they feel confident and secure in the investment they have made into their home and their rental properties.

For example, the long-term appreciation rates based on up to 41 years of research are as follows:

  • Larimer County = 5.36%
  • Weld County = 4.25%
  • Metro Denver = 5.56%

So over the course of a year prices may go up a lot or go up a little, but in the long term they will stay true to these long term averages.

To see an update as to what is happening in the Northern Colorado market, contact us to receive our quarterly “Scoop” report.


We have justimage completed a comprehensive report for anyone thinking about selling their home. The Insider’s Guide to Selling Your Home (without any stress or surprises) is now available for you.

It is hot off the press and you can grab a copy by clicking HERE.

Claim your copy immediately so you can see everything you need to know to sell your home in today’s market.


 

Posted on October 27, 2017 at 4:02 pm
Meagan Griesel | Category: Blog, Colorado Real Estate, Fun Facts, Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Inventory Is Up

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Inventory Is Up

For the past few years the hot topic in Northern Colorado real estate is inventory, or more specifically, lack of inventory.

Based on our current research, it looks like this trend is reversing.

Let’s look at the increase in inventory in our major markets versus a year ago…

  • Fort Collins up 28%
  • Loveland up 4%
  • Windsor up 37%
  • Greeley up 5%

This increase in is very good news for prospective buyers as now there are more homes to choose from.

To see an update as to what is happening in the Northern Colorado market, contact us to receive our quarterly “Scoop” report.


imageWe have just completed a comprehensive report for anyone thinking about selling their home. The Insider’s Guide to Selling Your Home (without any stress or surprises) is now available for you.

It is hot off the press and you can grab a copy by clicking HERE.

Claim your copy immediately so you can see everything you need to know to sell your home in today’s market.

Posted on October 20, 2017 at 5:53 pm
Meagan Griesel | Category: Blog, Colorado Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Fun Facts, Loveland Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Signs of Slowing?

Is the same thing happening in Northern Colorado?Road, Sign, Asphalt, Road Sign, Roadsign

Are the Larimer and Weld County markets showing signs of slowing?

Here’s the deal…

The Denver Post article points to the difference in number of transactions between June and July of this year. It’s no surprise to us that July had fewer closings.

What’s true in Metro Denver is also true in Northern Colorado – June tends to have more closings than any other month during the year so of course July will be slower.

What we do notice when we look at the numbers is that the difference between June and July is significant.

In all major markets in Northern Colorado, the difference between June and July is the greatest it has ever been in the last four years.

For example, in Fort Collins, July had 18% fewer closings than June, whereas last year the difference was 9%. In Greeley the difference this year was 16% while last year was only 5%.

A month over month difference does not necessarily indicate a long-term trend. However, there is a difference compared to last year which should be welcome news to buyers who have been waiting for a slow down.


We have just completed a comprehensive report for anyone thinking about selling their home.

The Insider’s Guide to Selling Your Home (without any stress or surprises) is now available for you.

It is hot off the press and you can request a copy by emailing meagangriesel@gmail.com

Contact me to get your copy immediately so you can see everything you need to know to sell your home in today’s market.

Posted on August 15, 2017 at 6:41 pm
Meagan Griesel | Category: Fort Collins Real Estate, Longmont Real Estate, Loveland Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Windsor Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

THE GARDNER REPORT – 2ND QUARTER 2017

The Gardner Report | Metro Denver and Northern Colorado Q2 2017

The following analysis of the Metro Denver and Northern Colorado real estate market is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW


Colorado added 62,000 new jobs over the past 12 months, an increase of 2.4% over this time last year. All of the metropolitan markets included in this report saw annual employment growth, with substantial growth in Boulder (4.7%) and Fort Collins (+4.1%), and more modest growth in Grand Junction (0.3%).

In May, the unemployment rate in the state was 2.3%, matching the prior month and down 3.4% from a year ago. The lowest unemployment rate was in Fort Collins at just 2.0%. The highest rate was in Grand Junction, though it was still a relatively low 3.3%. It is reasonable to expect these markets will see above-average wage growth given the tight labor market.

HOME SALES ACTIVITY


  • There were 17,581 home sales during the first quarter of 2017, a solid annual increase of 3.9% over the first quarter of 2016.
  • Jefferson County saw sales grow at the fastest rate over the past 12 months, with a 9.4% increase. There was also an impressive increase in Douglas County (+6.3%).  More modest sales growth was seen in Denver and Weld Counties.
  • Even with the rise in sales, listing activity is still running at well below historic averages, with the total number of homes for sale in the second quarter 7.6% below a year ago.
  • Sales growth continues to trend higher, but inventory levels remain well below where they need to be to satisfy demand.
Annual Change in Home Sales

HOME PRICES


  • Due to solid demand, home prices continue to rise with average prices up by 8.5% year-over-year to an average across the region of $438,980.
  • Boulder County saw slower appreciation in home values, but the trend is still positive.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Denver and Weld Counties, where prices rose by 12.4% and 10.6% respectively.
  • Economic growth is driving job growth, which is driving housing demand. Given the relative shortage of homes for sale, expect to see home prices continue to appreciate at above-average rates at least through the rest of the year.
Metro Denver and Northern Colorado Heat Map
Annual Change in Home Sale Prices

DAYS ON MARKET


  • The average number of days it took to sell a home dropped by three days when compared to the second quarter of 2016.
  • Homes in all counties contained in this report took less than a month to sell. Adams County stood out as it took an average of only 11 days to sell a home.
  • During the second quarter, it took an average of just 17 days to sell a home. This is down by a substantial 13 days compared to the first quarter of this year.
  • The takeaway here is that demand remains robust as evidenced by the remarkably short amount of time that it is taking to sell a home.
Average Days on Market

CONCLUSIONS


This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

After the second quarter of 2017, I have moved the needle even farther in favor of sellers. Mortgage rates remain very competitive and, with the specter of lending standards easing a little, demand will remain robust, which will be reflected in rising home values.

ABOUT MATTHEW GARDNER


Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.
Posted on July 31, 2017 at 8:10 pm
Meagan Griesel | Category: Blog, Colorado Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Loveland Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , ,

Charming Home in Downtown Loveland

Beautifully updated downtown home on an extra large corner lot – perfect for the urban farmer.

You could be living here by the time all the landscaping starts to bloom. Two bedrooms upstairs, 2 non-conforming bedrooms downstairs. The basement is finished nicer than you ever see in downtown homes. So many great details were added to this home such as built-ins, crown molding, pull-out shelves, and new bedroom carpet. Windermere Certified Listing!

Call me for more details at (970) 691-0056 or visit http://meagan-griesel.com/listing/54104303

Posted on March 2, 2017 at 9:02 pm
Meagan Griesel | Category: Loveland Real Estate | Tagged , , , ,

Love Loveland!

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Love Loveland

It’s Valentine’s Day and Loveland Colorado is the place to be.

Loveland has certainly been a hot place to own real estate over the last 5 years. The median price was $192,500 in 2012 and today it is $315,000. That’s a $122,500 increase. We love it!

It also looks like it will be the place to be in the future. One of the many exciting developments on the horizon in Loveland is The Foundry.

The Foundry will revitalize Loveland’s historic downtown. Three empty city blocks will soon transform into a movie theater, apartments, offices, retailers and parking to support the increased traffic coming to the new epicenter of entertainment in downtown Loveland. Exciting stuff!

Loveland and Northern Colorado is one of the Front Range markets featured in our latest real estate report. It is written by our Cheif Economist Matthew Gardner and you can get it by clicking here: The Gardner Report


In our February issue of the Windermere Report, we will take a close look at what’s happening in Larimer and Weld County real estate.

If you’re not already receiving this monthly printed newsletter designed to keep you informed, educated and entertained on real estate, I will put you on our list!

Simply Email me and I will get one in your hands right away. Meagang@windermere.com

Posted on February 15, 2017 at 12:51 am
Meagan Griesel | Category: Blog, Colorado Real Estate, Loveland Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Uncategorized | Tagged , , , , ,

Prices Continue to Pop in 2017

Real Estate Prices in Larimer and Weld Counties Are Up Double-Digits

Fort Collins, Colo. (Feb. 7, 2017) – Continuing a trend that started four years ago, average residential real estate prices in January 2017 increased by double-digits compared to one year ago. Larimer County’s prices are 10.5% higher than last January and Weld County’s are up even more at 12.8%.

The average price of a property in Larimer County so far this year is $378,253 and in Weld County it is $310,948. Both Counties have seen their residential average prices go up by almost $100,000 in just three years.

“For three years now we have had the perfect storm to cause prices to increase at a rate that is double the long-term average. Northern Colorado is in the top-10 nationally for fastest growing communities, we have an incredibly healthy economy with high employment, interest rates that are roughly half of the long term average, and very few homes to pick from,” said Eric Thompson president of Windermere Real Estate in Colorado.

“The inventory of listings is especially low in the lower price points. For example, if someone wanted to buy a single-family home in Fort Collins under $300,000 they would have five listings to choose from today. Greeley has 33 homes at that price point,” Thompson said. “These dynamics create a unique opportunity for move up buyers to capture the appreciation in their home and leverage the low interest rates to buy the home of their dreams.”

Even though the number of homes available for sale across Larimer and Weld Counties may be down, Windermere Real Estate in Northern Colorado saw their January closed transactions increase 48% compared to last year. Their new written contracts are up even more at 110% compared to 2016.

About Windermere Colorado:

Since its inception in 1972, Windermere Real Estate has grown to be a network of 300 offices with more than 7,000 agents by focusing on three basic principles: hire the best people, give them the best tools and create thriving communities. Windermere’s growth has allowed them to expand into the Colorado market led by Eric Thompson, President of Windermere Colorado. For more information, visit www.windermerecolorado.com.

About Windermere Real Estate

Windermere Real Estate is ranked the largest regional real estate company in the Western U.S. serving communities in Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington and Mexico. The Windermere family has a proud heritage of serving our neighbors via the Windermere Foundation, which funds services for low-income and homeless families. Since 1989, the Windermere Foundation has contributed more than 28 million dollars towards improving lives in the communities where we live and work. For more information, visit www.windermerecolorado.com.

Posted on February 7, 2017 at 11:02 pm
Meagan Griesel | Category: Blog, Colorado Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Loveland Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , ,

Our Crystal Ball

Last month Windermere’s Chief Economist Matthew Gardner joined us for our annual Market Forecast events in Colorado. We were pleased to host over 500 customers at two events in Denver and Fort Collins.

Here are some of the big takeaways that we shared:

  • Interest rates will increase to 4.6% by the end of the year
  • First-time buyers are back and will make up 47% of all buyers in 2017
  • Inventory will remain at record lows and will continue to drive up prices
  • Appreciation is expected to be between 9% and 7% accross our Front Range markets
  • Home builders will get creative in order to hit lower price points – we will see more “tiny homes” and more homes without basements

Click HERE to see Matthew Gardner’s infographic on the 2017 Forecast.

Posted on February 7, 2017 at 10:54 pm
Meagan Griesel | Category: Blog, Colorado Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Loveland Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Door Opens for Buyers

After a very active (to say the least) spring and summer, the door has now opened for buyers in our market.

Buyers who were frustrated during the first half of the year with low inventory and bidding wars now realize a better environment. It's time to step off the sidelines and take a fresh look at what the market has to offer.

The first piece of good news is that rates have dropped to near all-time lows. Rates today are 0.6% lower than they were on January 1st. What this means on a $400,000 home with a conventional loan is a monthly savings of $110!

The second piece of good news is that inventory levels are coming up. There are more homes on the market to pick from and lower demand because of seasonal slowing. Months of inventory in Larimer County markets have bounced up 20% to 33%.

Now is a great time for buyers to step through the door that is opening in the market!

Contact me to get the latest insights on our market. Our quarterly market report called "The Scoopwill help you see where the opportunities are in Northern Colorado. Contact us and we will send you a copy right away! 

Posted on August 5, 2016 at 6:34 pm
Meagan Griesel | Category: Fort Collins Real Estate, Fun Facts, Loveland Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , ,