Why we are not in a Real Estate Bubble…

There are several reasons why our Chief Economist does not believe there is a housing bubble today in the U.S.

Below is a slide he shared at our recent market Forecast events.

It shows U.S. Home ownership rate, which is simply the percentage of the population who own their home (versus renting).

The long-term average is 65% represented by the red line.

In the graph you can clearly see the bubble forming. Starting in the mid-90’s, driven by several political and economic factors, more people than ever before became homeowners.

 

 

Then, starting in, 2008, the bubble burst and the percentage tumbled back down.

Now, as you can see, we are back at a “normal” level that resembles the long-term average.

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If you would like a copy of the entire Forecast presentation, go ahead and reach out to me. I would be happy to put it in your hands.

Posted on February 1, 2019 at 4:21 pm
Meagan Griesel | Category: Colorado Real Estate, Fun Facts, Northern Colorado Real Estate

2019 Real Estate Market Forecast

Our Forecast

This past Wednesday and Thursday evenings we had the pleasure of hosting our annual Market Forecast events in Denver and Fort Collins.

Thank you to the 700 people who attended.  We appreciate your support!

In case you missed the events, here are some highlights including our forecast for price appreciation in 2019:

  • In 2018 Prices went up:
    • 8% in Fort Collins
    • 8% in Loveland
    • 8.5% in Greeley
    • 8% in Metro Denver
  • Inventory is (finally) showing signs of increasing:
    • Up 25% in Northern Colorado
    • Up 45% in Metro Denver
  • There are distinct differences in months of inventory across different price ranges = opportunity for the move up buyer.
  • There are several reasons why we don’t see a housing bubble forming:
    • New home starts along the Front Range are roughly 60% of pre-bubble highs 14 years ago.
    • Americans have more equity in their homes than ever, $6 Trillion!
    • The average FICO score of home buyers is significantly higher than the long-term average.
    • The homeownership rate is back to the long-term average.
  • Our 2019 Price Appreciation Forecast:
    • 6% in Fort Collins
    • 6% in Loveland
    • 7% in Greeley
    • 6% in Metro Denver

If you would like a copy of the presentation, go ahead and reach out to me.  I would be happy to put it in your hands.


 

Posted on January 18, 2019 at 5:34 pm
Meagan Griesel | Category: Colorado Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Fun Facts, Loveland Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate

How’s the Colorado Real Estate Market?

What’s Starting?

Here are some interesting stats from our friends at Metro Study who study new home activity along the Front Range.

  • New home starts are up 14% compared to last year – this is really good news and is helping to relieve the shortage of housing inventory
  • Every product type saw an increase in starts compared to last year (single family, townhome and condominium)
  • Condominiums saw the largest increase in starts by a long shot, up 112% over last year- this is excellent news for first time buyers and those looking for product in lower price ranges.

If you want to be totally clear on all the stats, facts and trends in Colorado real estate so that you know what the future value of your home looks like, watch this video.

This is a complimentary service for our clients and friends.

See all the latest facts, stats and trends of the Colorado market from the comfort of your own laptop.

Watch the Windermere Workshop video for a mid-year market update.

WATCH HERE

Posted on September 28, 2018 at 2:43 pm
Meagan Griesel | Category: Blog, Colorado Real Estate, Fun Facts | Tagged

Northern Colorado Real Estate Appreciation

How We Rank

Here’s how the largest Colorado cities rank on the most recent Federal Housing Finance Authority’s quarterly report.  They study the appreciation rate in 245 metropolitan areas all over the country.

City                             Rank                 Appreciation

Boulder                        65th                   8.76%

Colorado Springs        15th                    11.54%

Denver                        30th                    10.16%

Fort Collins                  85th                    7.51%

Grand Junction            58th                    9.01%

Greeley                        45th                    9.51%


If you want to be totally clear on all the stats, facts and trends in Colorado real estate so that you know what the future value of your home looks like, watch this video.

This is a complimentary service for our clients and friends.

See all the latest facts, stats and trends of the Colorado market from the comfort of your own laptop.

Watch the Windermere Workshop video for a mid-year market update.

WATCH HERE

Posted on September 21, 2018 at 2:06 pm
Meagan Griesel | Category: Blog, Colorado Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Fun Facts | Tagged ,

The Cost of Waiting – Northern CO Real Estate

The Cost of Waiting

It’s true, certain parts of our market are cooling off.  We are seeing fewer multiple offers, fewer bidding wars, and fewer inspection concessions.

However, homes that are priced right and in great condition are selling, and in many cases, selling quickly.

As buyers feel the market cool a bit, it may cause them to want to wait.  They sometimes feel like it’s a better choice to ‘wait and see what happens.’

The reality is, there is a real cost to waiting given two specific facts.

1. Interest rates will continue to rise

2.  Prices will continue to rise

Interest rates are a little more than 0.5% higher than a year ago and experts predict them to be another 0.5% higher by this time next year.

Prices have been appreciating at roughly 10% per year for the last four years.  Based on the numbers, we see that appreciation could be 5% per year for the next two years.

So, let’s look at a house priced at $450,000 today.  If prices go up “only” 5% for the next 12 months, that home will cost $22,500 more in a year.

And, if rates go up another half percent, the monthly payment will be $206 higher.  That’s an 11% increase!

In an environment of rising prices and rising rates, there is a real cost to “wait and see.”


If you want to be totally clear on all the stats, facts and trends in Colorado real estate so that you know what the future value of your home looks like, watch this video.

This is a complimentary service for our clients and friends.

See all the latest facts, stats and trends of the Colorado market from the comfort of your own laptop.

Watch the Windermere Workshop video for a mid-year market update.

WATCH HERE

Posted on September 7, 2018 at 1:56 pm
Meagan Griesel | Category: Blog, Colorado Real Estate, Fun Facts, Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , , ,

Home Affordability in Perspective

Everyone’s Talking

It seems like everyone’s talking about affordability and making an assumption that homes are less affordable than they have ever been.  Not so fast…

Let’s look at home prices relative to the median income needed to purchase the home.

It’s true that home prices have appreciated year-over-year for the last 76 months in a row, largely driven by high demand and low supply.

According to a recent study by Zillow, the percentage of median income necessary to buy a home in today’s market (17.1%) is well below the mark reached in 1985 – 2000 (21%), as well as the mark reached in 2006 (25.4)!

Bottom line, interest rates would have to increase to 6% before buying a home would be less affordable than historical norms.

Source:  Keeping Current Matters

Posted on August 31, 2018 at 2:19 pm
Meagan Griesel | Category: Blog, Colorado Real Estate, Fun Facts

Real Estate Market Friday Fun Facts

Did You Know?

Did you know the average price appreciation over the long term, according to the Federal Housing Finance Authority (who’s been studying this for 40+ years) is…

·         5.63% per year for Metro Denver

·         5.35% per year for Larimer County

·         4.5% per year for Weld County

If you want to be totally clear on all the stats, facts and trends in Colorado real estate so that you know what the future value of your home looks like, watch this video.

This is a complimentary service for my clients and friends.

Posted on August 17, 2018 at 9:47 am
Posted on August 17, 2018 at 5:24 pm
Meagan Griesel | Category: Blog, Colorado Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Fun Facts, Loveland Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate

Short vs. Long

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There are short-term questions about real estate and there are long term questions about real estate.

Clients often have short-term questions like…

How much will prices go up next year? Should I sell my house this Fall or next Spring? Will interest rates go up next week?

We encourage our clients to evaluate those questions in the context of the long-term. There are decades of data on the Northern Colorado market which reveal certain patterns.

When we show our clients these patterns they feel confident and secure in the investment they have made into their home and their rental properties.

For example, the long-term appreciation rates based on up to 41 years of research are as follows:

  • Larimer County = 5.36%
  • Weld County = 4.25%
  • Metro Denver = 5.56%

So over the course of a year prices may go up a lot or go up a little, but in the long term they will stay true to these long term averages.

To see an update as to what is happening in the Northern Colorado market, contact us to receive our quarterly “Scoop” report.


We have justimage completed a comprehensive report for anyone thinking about selling their home. The Insider’s Guide to Selling Your Home (without any stress or surprises) is now available for you.

It is hot off the press and you can grab a copy by clicking HERE.

Claim your copy immediately so you can see everything you need to know to sell your home in today’s market.


 

Posted on October 27, 2017 at 4:02 pm
Meagan Griesel | Category: Blog, Colorado Real Estate, Fun Facts, Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Inventory Is Up

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Inventory Is Up

For the past few years the hot topic in Northern Colorado real estate is inventory, or more specifically, lack of inventory.

Based on our current research, it looks like this trend is reversing.

Let’s look at the increase in inventory in our major markets versus a year ago…

  • Fort Collins up 28%
  • Loveland up 4%
  • Windsor up 37%
  • Greeley up 5%

This increase in is very good news for prospective buyers as now there are more homes to choose from.

To see an update as to what is happening in the Northern Colorado market, contact us to receive our quarterly “Scoop” report.


imageWe have just completed a comprehensive report for anyone thinking about selling their home. The Insider’s Guide to Selling Your Home (without any stress or surprises) is now available for you.

It is hot off the press and you can grab a copy by clicking HERE.

Claim your copy immediately so you can see everything you need to know to sell your home in today’s market.

Posted on October 20, 2017 at 5:53 pm
Meagan Griesel | Category: Blog, Colorado Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Fun Facts, Loveland Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , , ,

Homecoming

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It’s homecoming weekend at CSU which means that alums from all over the Country will be back to visit Northern Colorado.

So how does their real estate market stack up versus the place where they went to college?

Odds are, it’s not as good!

It turns out that there are only 9 metropolitan areas out of about 270 that have higher appreciation than Larimer County.

Interestingly, 3 of the 9 are in Washington and 2 of the 9 are in Oregon. So if they are visiting from the Pacific Northwest they probably have an even stronger market than here.

But pretty much everywhere else is below our market.

This is all according to the Federal Housing Finance Authority who tracks the nation’s real estate markets. They show that Larimer County has appreciated 12.08% in the last year which ranks 9th in the nation.

First place belongs to Mount Vernon, Washington at 15.14%. Last place is Atlantic City, N.J. which had a decrease of 0.77%.

So best of luck to CSU in their homecoming game and cheers to a healthy real estate market!

Today is our annual Homecoming weekend Tailgate Party. You are invited to attend. Click HERE for more info. You can bring family and friends to our office at 400 E. Horsetooth in Fort Collins. We’ll have taco trucks, beer, wine, margaritas, bouncy houses, pony rides and a live band! See you there!


We have jusimaget completed a comprehensive report for anyone thinking about selling their home. The Insider’s Guide to Selling Your Home (without any stress or surprises) is now available for you.

It is hot off the press and you can grab a copy by clicking HERE .

Claim your copy immediately so you can see everything you need to know to sell your home in today’s market.

Posted on October 13, 2017 at 7:37 pm
Meagan Griesel | Category: Colorado Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Fun Facts, Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , , , ,