Who’s market is it?

So, which is it? A buyer’s market or a seller’s market?

Well, it depends!

First, let’s define each market. According to research, a buyer’s market exists when there is more than 4-6 months of inventory on the market.

If it would take longer than 4-6 months to sell out all of the inventory currently for sale, then it is a buyer’s market.

This calculation is obviously a function of the amount of inventory on the market and the current pace of sales.

A seller’s market exists if it would take shorter than 4-6 months.

So, which is it?

It depends very much on the price range.

Here are the numbers for Northern Colorado:

• $300,000 to $400,000 = 0.9 months
• $400,000 to $500,000 = 1.9 months
• $500,000 to $750,000 = 2.3 months
• $750,000 and over = 5.8 months

So, most price ranges are a clear seller’s market. It’s not until $750,000 and over that the market starts to approach a more balanced state.


Here’s one more thing that might help you…

You probably don’t need a reminder that this is tax season.

Not only because tax returns are due in two weeks but also because you will soon receive your property tax notification in the mail.

Every two years your County re-assesses the value of your property and then sends that new value to you.

When this happens, many of our clients:

  • Don’t agree with the new assessed value
  • Aren’t sure what to do
  • Are confused by the process
  • Want to save money on property taxes

Good news! We have a webinar that will help you. On the webinar we will show you:

  • How to read the information from the County
  • What it means for you
  • How to protest the valuation if you want
  • How to get an accurate estimate of your property’s value

You can listen to the webinar live or get the recording. In any case, you can sign up at www.WindermereWorkshop.com

The webinar is April 17th at 10:00. If you can’t join live, go ahead and register so you can automatically receive the recording.

This is a complimentary online workshop for all of our clients. We hope you can join!

Posted on April 12, 2019 at 6:47 pm
Meagan Griesel | Category: Colorado Real Estate, Fun Facts, Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , , , , , ,

Friday Fun Facts. How’s the Market?

We’ve seen some headlines recently that suggest home prices along the Front Range have peaked and are starting to decline.

When we dig in and do the research, this is what we find…

Home prices are still going up, just not as fast as they have been.

We’ve known that the double-digit appreciation that we’ve seen for the last several years could not be sustained and we expected the pace of appreciation to slow down.

So far in 2019, this is the case.  Prices still going up, just not as fast.

It’s like running up stairs.  Eventually you will get tired and you will need to start walking (but you’re still going up).

Headlines that suggest that prices have peaked and are falling create unrealistic expectations for buyers and give sellers a skewed perspective on the market.

Here are the numbers…

Average Price:

  • Up 1.53% in Metro Denver
  • Up 6.1% in Larimer County
  • Up 5.1% in Weld County

Months of Inventory:

  • 1.5 Months in Metro Denver
  • 1.5 Months in Larimer County
  • 1.4 Months in Weld County
  • (Remember that 4-6 months of inventory represents a balanced market)

There has been an increase in Days on Market which means that homes are taking longer to sell.  But the increase is measured in days, not months.

Here are those numbers…

Days on Market:

  • Up 4 Days in Metro Denver
  • Up 11 Days in Larimer County
  • Up 3 Days in Weld County

So, be mindful of headlines that can be sensationalized and might suggest that the market is falling.

Bottom line, the market is going up, just not as fast as it was.

Speaking of prices, here’s something that can help you…

You probably don’t need a reminder that this is tax season.

Not only because tax returns are due in two weeks but also because you will soon receive your property tax notification in the mail.

Every two years your County re-assesses the value of your property and then sends that new value to you.

When this happens, many of our clients:

Don’t agree with the new assessed value

Aren’t sure what to do

Are confused by the process

Want to save money on property taxes

Good news!  We have a webinar that will help you.  On the webinar we will show you:

How to read the information from the County

What it means for you

How to protest the valuation if you want

How to get an accurate estimate of your property’s value

You can listen to the webinar live or get the recording.  In any case, you can sign up at www.WindermereWorkshop.com

The webinar is April 17th at 10:00.  If you can’t join live, go ahead and register so you can automatically receive the recording.

This is a complimentary online workshop for all of our clients.  We hope you can join!

Posted on April 5, 2019 at 1:57 pm
Meagan Griesel | Category: Colorado Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Fun Facts, Loveland Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , , ,

Property Tax Notification coming soon!

You probably don’t need a reminder that this is tax season.

Not only because tax returns are due in two weeks but also because you will soon receive your property tax notification in the mail.

Every two years your County re-assesses the value of your property and then sends that new value to you.

When this happens, many of our clients:

  • Don’t agree with the new assessed value
  • Aren’t sure what to do
  • Are confused by the process
  • Want to save money on property taxes

Good news! We have a webinar that will help you. On the webinar we will show you:

  • How to read the information from the County
  • What it means for you
  • How to protest the valuation if you want
  • How to get an accurate estimate of your property’s value

You can listen to the webinar live or get the recording. In any case, you can sign up at www.WindermereWorkshop.com

The webinar is April 17th at 10:00. If you can’t join live, go ahead and register so you can automatically receive the recording.

This is a complimentary online workshop for all of our clients. We hope you can join!

Posted on March 29, 2019 at 4:38 pm
Meagan Griesel | Category: Colorado Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Fun Facts, Loveland Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate, Uncategorized | Tagged , , ,

Real Estate Rankings by City… #1 is Vegas

Vegas Baby!

The results are in from FHFA.gov’s latest ranking of the top performing markets in the U.S.

Each quarter they track 245 cities across the country and rank their real estate markets by home price appreciation.

 

What’s the highest performing city the the U.S.

Vegas!  Their prices have gone up 17.63% in the last year.

 

How about the worst?

Bloomington, Illinois sits in dead last where prices went down 3.58%

 

Here’s how Colorado cities are ranked:

• #10 Colo. Springs = 11.41%
• #16 Greeley = 10.68%
• #59 Fort Collins = 8.29%
• #64 Denver = 8.15%
• #97 Boulder = 6.85%

Posted on March 1, 2019 at 5:18 pm
Meagan Griesel | Category: Colorado Real Estate, Fun Facts, Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged ,

Home prices rarely go negative in Larimer County

Did you know, according to FHFA, home prices in Larimer County have dropped more than 1% only 4 times in the last 40 years?

FHFA stands for the Federal Housing Finance Authority. We are one of 261 markets that they track. Since 1978 they have been measuring home price appreciation here.
If you look at the appreciation numbers for each individual year, you will notice that most years the prices go up and some years the prices go down.
But there have only been 4 times in those 40 years where prices decreased more than 1%
Here’s what happened those 4 times:
• 1982 = -3.99%
• 1987 = -1.86%
• 2008 = -2.29%
• 2010 = -1.12%
Sometimes we hear buyers say that they would like to wait for the “prices to come crashing down.” The reality is that the price drops don’t happen all that often and when they do, they don’t drop by that much at all.
If you would like to see a short video with a recap of our annual Market Forecast presentation, watch the video below.
Posted on February 25, 2019 at 3:46 pm
Meagan Griesel | Category: Fort Collins Real Estate, Fun Facts, Loveland Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , ,

Why we are not in a Real Estate Bubble…

There are several reasons why our Chief Economist does not believe there is a housing bubble today in the U.S.

Below is a slide he shared at our recent market Forecast events.

It shows U.S. Home ownership rate, which is simply the percentage of the population who own their home (versus renting).

The long-term average is 65% represented by the red line.

In the graph you can clearly see the bubble forming. Starting in the mid-90’s, driven by several political and economic factors, more people than ever before became homeowners.

 

 

Then, starting in, 2008, the bubble burst and the percentage tumbled back down.

Now, as you can see, we are back at a “normal” level that resembles the long-term average.

________________________________________

If you would like a copy of the entire Forecast presentation, go ahead and reach out to me. I would be happy to put it in your hands.

Posted on February 1, 2019 at 4:21 pm
Meagan Griesel | Category: Colorado Real Estate, Fun Facts, Northern Colorado Real Estate

2019 Real Estate Market Forecast

Our Forecast

This past Wednesday and Thursday evenings we had the pleasure of hosting our annual Market Forecast events in Denver and Fort Collins.

Thank you to the 700 people who attended.  We appreciate your support!

In case you missed the events, here are some highlights including our forecast for price appreciation in 2019:

  • In 2018 Prices went up:
    • 8% in Fort Collins
    • 8% in Loveland
    • 8.5% in Greeley
    • 8% in Metro Denver
  • Inventory is (finally) showing signs of increasing:
    • Up 25% in Northern Colorado
    • Up 45% in Metro Denver
  • There are distinct differences in months of inventory across different price ranges = opportunity for the move up buyer.
  • There are several reasons why we don’t see a housing bubble forming:
    • New home starts along the Front Range are roughly 60% of pre-bubble highs 14 years ago.
    • Americans have more equity in their homes than ever, $6 Trillion!
    • The average FICO score of home buyers is significantly higher than the long-term average.
    • The homeownership rate is back to the long-term average.
  • Our 2019 Price Appreciation Forecast:
    • 6% in Fort Collins
    • 6% in Loveland
    • 7% in Greeley
    • 6% in Metro Denver

If you would like a copy of the presentation, go ahead and reach out to me.  I would be happy to put it in your hands.


 

Posted on January 18, 2019 at 5:34 pm
Meagan Griesel | Category: Colorado Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Fun Facts, Loveland Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate

The Cost of Waiting – Northern CO Real Estate

The Cost of Waiting

It’s true, certain parts of our market are cooling off.  We are seeing fewer multiple offers, fewer bidding wars, and fewer inspection concessions.

However, homes that are priced right and in great condition are selling, and in many cases, selling quickly.

As buyers feel the market cool a bit, it may cause them to want to wait.  They sometimes feel like it’s a better choice to ‘wait and see what happens.’

The reality is, there is a real cost to waiting given two specific facts.

1. Interest rates will continue to rise

2.  Prices will continue to rise

Interest rates are a little more than 0.5% higher than a year ago and experts predict them to be another 0.5% higher by this time next year.

Prices have been appreciating at roughly 10% per year for the last four years.  Based on the numbers, we see that appreciation could be 5% per year for the next two years.

So, let’s look at a house priced at $450,000 today.  If prices go up “only” 5% for the next 12 months, that home will cost $22,500 more in a year.

And, if rates go up another half percent, the monthly payment will be $206 higher.  That’s an 11% increase!

In an environment of rising prices and rising rates, there is a real cost to “wait and see.”


If you want to be totally clear on all the stats, facts and trends in Colorado real estate so that you know what the future value of your home looks like, watch this video.

This is a complimentary service for our clients and friends.

See all the latest facts, stats and trends of the Colorado market from the comfort of your own laptop.

Watch the Windermere Workshop video for a mid-year market update.

WATCH HERE

Posted on September 7, 2018 at 1:56 pm
Meagan Griesel | Category: Blog, Colorado Real Estate, Fun Facts, Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged , , ,

Real Estate Market Friday Fun Facts

Did You Know?

Did you know the average price appreciation over the long term, according to the Federal Housing Finance Authority (who’s been studying this for 40+ years) is…

·         5.63% per year for Metro Denver

·         5.35% per year for Larimer County

·         4.5% per year for Weld County

If you want to be totally clear on all the stats, facts and trends in Colorado real estate so that you know what the future value of your home looks like, watch this video.

This is a complimentary service for my clients and friends.

Posted on August 17, 2018 at 9:47 am
Posted on August 17, 2018 at 5:24 pm
Meagan Griesel | Category: Blog, Colorado Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Fun Facts, Loveland Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate

Colorado Real Estate Market Update

2018 Second Quarter

 

The following analysis of the Metro Denver & Northern Colorado real estate market (which now includes Clear Creek, Gilpin, and Park Counties) is provided by Windermere Real Estate Chief Economist Matthew Gardner. We hope that this information may assist you with making better-informed real estate decisions. For further information about the housing market in your area, please don’t hesitate to contact your Windermere agent.

 

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

Colorado continues to see very strong job growth, adding 72,800 non-agricultural jobs over the past 12 months—an impressive increase of 2.7%. Through the first five months of 2018, the state added an average of 7,300 new jobs per month. I expect this growth to continue through the remainder of the year, resulting in about 80,000 new jobs in 2018.

In May, the state unemployment rate was 2.8%. This is slightly above the 2.6% we saw a year ago but still represents a remarkably low level. Unemployment remains either stable or is dropping in all the markets contained in this report, with the lowest reported rates in Fort Collins and Boulder, where just 2.2% of the labor force was actively looking for work. The highest unemployment rate was in Grand Junction, which came in at 3.1%.

 

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

  • In the second quarter of 2018, 17,769 homes sold—a drop of 2.4% compared to the second quarter of 2017.
  • Sales rose in 5 of the 11 counties contained in this report, with Gilpin County sales rising by an impressive 10.7% compared to second quarter of last year. There were also noticeable increases in Clear Creek and Weld Counties. Sales fell the most in Park County but, as this is a relatively small area, I see no great cause for concern at this time.
  • Slowing sales activity is to be expected given the low levels of available homes for sale in many of the counties contained in this report. That said, we did see some significant increases in listing activity in Denver and Larimer Counties. This should translate into increasing sales through the summer months.
  • The takeaway here is that sales growth is being hobbled by a general lack of homes for sale, and due to a drop in housing demand.

 

 

HOME PRICES

  • With strong economic growth and a persistent lack of inventory, prices continue to trend higher. The average home price in the region rose
    9.8% year-over-year to $479,943.
  • The smallest price gains in the region were in Park County, though the increase there was still a respectable 7%.
  • Appreciation was strongest in Clear Creek and Gilpin Counties, where prices rose by 28.9% and 26%, respectively. All other counties in this report saw gains above the long-term average.
  • Although there was some growth in listings, the ongoing imbalance between supply and demand persists, driving home prices higher.

 

 

DAYS ON MARKET

  • The average number of days it took to sell a home remained at the same level as a year ago.
  • The length of time it took to sell a home dropped in most markets contained in this report. Gilpin County saw a very significant jump in days on market, but this can be attributed to the fact that it is a very small area which makes it prone to severe swings.
  • In the second quarter of 2018, it took an average of 24 days to sell a home. Of note is Adams County, where it took an average of only 10 days to sell a home.
  • Housing demand remains very strong and all the markets in this report continue to be in dire need of additional inventory to satisfy demand.

 

 

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s real estate market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors.

For the second quarter of 2018, I have moved the needle very slightly towards buyers as a few counties actually saw inventories rise. However, while I expect to see listings increase in the coming months, for now, the housing market continues to heavily favor sellers.

 

 

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

Posted on August 10, 2018 at 4:32 pm
Meagan Griesel | Category: Blog, Colorado Real Estate, Fort Collins Real Estate, Loveland Real Estate, Northern Colorado Real Estate | Tagged ,